Some new reports might provide some insight about this year's measles outlook.
This week's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC indicated that there have been at least 25 cases of measles reported to the CDC already this year. We had only seen 21 cases up to this point last year - a year that ended up with the most cases since 1996.
In Europe, a new report from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control revealed the final numbers for their 2011 measles outbreak, which included 30,567 cases, 8 deaths, 27 cases of encephalitis, and 1,482 cases of pneumonia, with the highest incidence of cases in infants under 12 months of age. Not surprisingly, most of the cases were in people who were either unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated.
This is the second year in a row that Europe has reported more than 30,000 measles cases, but there is some hope that the number of cases will be down in 2012. Although 14 countries are already reporting measles cases, indicating the start of the measles season in Europe, the number of cases is down from last year's levels.
With a large outbreak in the Ukraine, 5,127 cases already in 2012, there is already some reasons to worry about the 2012 measles outlook though. In addition to a shortage of routine vaccines, the Ukraine now has "a strong anti-vaccination lobby," which are combining to lower vaccine coverage in the area. That the 14th UEFA European Football Championship (EURO 2012) is being hosted in Poland and Ukraine this summer is causing a concern that this will lead to a risk of spread of measles to travelers from Europe.
Another European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control report also provides some interesting insight into the ups and downs of measles, suggesting that instead of the distinct, major outbreaks that we saw in the pre-vaccine era, in which one case of measles would result in at least 15 new infections, we will start to see slowly propagating outbreaks at longer intervals (like the 2009-11 outbreak in France) if we continue to have suboptimal immunization rates.
Should you care how many measles cases there are in Europe or other parts of the world? Remember that all of the measles outbreaks in the United States start with cases from outside the country, so yes we should all be concerned. The more cases they have and the more unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated people that are here, then the more chances we will continue to see measles outbreaks in the United States too.
Fortunately, a plan is in place to eliminate measles by 2015 in the WHO European Region. What is your plan to keep your family safe from measles?
Related:
Measles Symptoms
AAP Measles Vaccination Reminder
Measles Outbreaks 2012
Measles Timeline
I’m wondering, what is the plan for dealing with MMR-induced encephalitis, autism, and IBD? Maybe people would feel better about getting the MMR if they knew there was a plan for prevention and treatment. Unfortunately, such a plan would first entail an admission that these adverse events occur. Without an admission, there can be no plan. So the strategy is just denial, and letting those in the herd who fall be left behind. And, what are the statistics on adverse reactions? You quote stats on the number of cases of wild measles, encephalitis, deaths. What are the stats relating to the MMR? We don’t know. The VAERS reports just sit there. The parents who say, “My child regressed into autism and IBD after the MMR” are told, “Just a coincidence!” and “You can’t prove it!” How many of the kids who got encephalitis from the wild virus would have gotten encephalitis from the vaccine? What are the susceptibility factors? We don’t know. It seems to me it would be better to have a plan to know as much as possible about vaccine reactions instead of knowing as little as possible in order to continue blanket denialism and authoritarian edicts.
Maybe when given by itself and without a Urabe mumps strain included, the MMR is safe for most toddlers? We don’t really know, as we’re not tracking and studying serious reactions, and we’re usually giving the MMR in combination with other vaccines which may increase the likelihood of adverse reactions (e.g. chicken pox, DTaP, flu shot with thimerosal…) How can we weigh the risks and benefits of a vaccine if we don’t really know the risks of the vaccine? I’m not against vaccinating for measles, but I am against how the families I know with children injured by the MMR are not acknowledged and the injuries are not thoroughly studied and understood. That kind of study is necessary to make our vaccine program as safe as possible.
I also believe very strongly in the rights of individuals to make vaccine choices. There are advantages to coming down with full blown case of measles for better life-long immunity, which can be partially passed down to offspring. Since measles can be a serious illness with rare serious complications possible, these are difficult decisions with risks on both sides.
“Since measles can be a serious illness with rare serious complications possible, these are difficult decisions with risks on both sides.”
Instead of rehashing a debate in which we will likely not say anything to change each others mind, please consider reading this mother’s story about vaccines and autism.
That’s a very odd choice for an article! One woman says her son came down with autism before getting vaccinated. That is evidence of what? I don’t know anyone who thinks that ALL autism is caused by vaccines.
She spouts all the tired cliches, such as:
“Science shows vaccines don’t have a causal link to autism, so it’s hard for me to understand why parents, even those with autistic children, can’t accept this fact. Instead they put so much credit on their own personal recollections which can be faulty and unreliable.”
and:
“Granted anecdotes aren’t proof, but the anti-vaccine people only have anecdotes with regard to their vaccine/autism claims.”
Condescension to those who have witnessed their children’s vaccine reactions resulting in autism, and to those who have researched and read a lot of science and come to the conclusion that sometimes vaccines do indeed cause autism.
And labeling all who believe in an autism-vaccine link “anti-vaccine”. Are people with concerns about faulty brakes “anti-car”? I for one am not “anti-vaccine”. I do believe that vaccines have an important role to play in fighting serious diseases. But vaccines also have a down side which needs to be much better understood. We don’t have an unlimited capacity to absorb dozens of vaccines. And some people are more susceptible to vaccine harm than others.
I’m sorry that Lara has had negative experiences with vaccine-autism debates. There are certainly angry and unpleasant people of all persuasions. The Vaccinate Your Baby FB page associated with the blog where Lara’s article is posted has some very nasty pro-vaccine commenters.
Odd that you would link to an article which basically has nothing significant to say, no evidence of anything, but lists a bunch of annoying canards which just make me want to argue, although your stated purpose was not to rehash a debate.
“I don’t know anyone who thinks that ALL autism is caused by vaccines. ”
For many parents that get caught up in these discussions and influenced to not influenced their kids, that is the main message they get.
They are often very surprised to hear stories about kids with autism who weren’t vaccinated.
The other side of the story is how she was raised by parents who were strongly anti-vaccine and how that influenced her life and relationship with her parents once she had kids.